Bondford’s quarterly currency forecast and FX outlook, covering the key drivers behind USD, EUR and GBP performance heading into the second half of 2026.

The European Central Bank has raised interest rates for the second time this year, hiking its deposit rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% as the latest escalation in the US-Iran conflict threatens to reignite inflation through higher energy prices. The ECB rate hike came as little surprise to financial markets, meaning the euro's immediate reaction was relatively muted. But the significance of today's decision extends well beyond the move itself.