Bondford’s Q4 2026 FX outlook examines how the Federal Reserve’s return to rate hikes, a deepening energy shock from the Middle East conflict and growing fiscal and political pressures are shaping the outlook for the US dollar, euro and pound sterling heading into the final quarter of the year.

The pound has a rare opportunity ahead of the UK Budget on October 28. The euro is under pressure from concerns about France’s public finances, while the dollar’s recent safe-haven support has become less reliable after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh downplayed September’s inflation spike, tempering expectations of further rate hikes.