Explore Bondford’s Q4 2025 outlook featuring currency dynamics, macroeconomic drivers, and forecasts for USD, EUR, and GBP.

The latest US government shutdown has arrived at an awkward moment for policymakers and markets alike. The failure of Congress to agree on a new funding bill forced the closure of all non-essential services on October 1, including the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), which produces critical data such as Non-Farm Payrolls and CPI. With those releases postponed, the Federal Reserve faces the unenviable task of steering policy without its usual compass.

Economists had expected the September meeting of the European Central Bank to be a non-event. The Bank had already cut rates eight times and handily achieved its 2% inflation target back in June. There was surely not much else that needed to be done other than repeat the usual lines about being “data dependent” and operating on a “meeting by meeting” basis and call it a day, right?

The significant downside surprise in US Non-Farm Payrolls for August has confirmed that a significant cooling of the labor market is underway, paving the way for a rate cut on September 17.

Trump's tariffs are reshaping global trade and challenging the dollar's role. Understand the FX market impact and strategic implications for your portfolio.

India-Pakistan tensions flare over Kashmir, risking global economic stability. We review the potential market impact on currencies.

If yesterday’s Prime Minister’s Questions was meant to showcase a confident new government in control, someone forgot to brief the markets—or the Chancellor.